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Obama
Predicts Black Voter Increase,
Southern Wins
 (AP) - If Barack Obama's historic
campaign to become the first black president boosts black turnout as
drastically as he predicts, he could crack decades of Republican
dominance across the South. That's a big "if." Still, an Associated
Press analysis of U.S. Census and voting data from the past four
presidential elections shows a potentially dramatic impact should Obama
fulfill his pledge to elevate black participation by 30 percent.
That would add nearly 1.8 million votes in 11 Southern states, the
analysis shows, enough to tip the balance in several that have been
Republican strongholds.
Besides the likely increase in black turnout, the Illinois senator also
expects a surge of young voters to help him compete in states that have
been reliably red since the once solidly Democratic South flipped to
the Republicans in 1964.
"I can tell you that North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and
Alabama will be in play," asserts North Carolina Democratic Rep. G.K.
Butterfield, an Obama adviser. "We're looking strongly at Tennessee and
Mississippi."
Obama set the 30 percent goal himself last August at a campaign stop in New Hampshire.
"I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up
30 percent around the country, minimum," he said. "Young people's
percentage of the vote goes up 25-30 percent. So we're in a position to
put states in play that haven't been in play since LBJ."
The math backs up his analysis — if he can deliver the turnout he
promises. In Georgia, the GOP presidential nominee's average margin of
victory in the past four elections was 216,000 votes. If 30 percent
more voting-age blacks go to the polls in November than the four-year
average — with all else equal, and Obama capturing all of those
votes — he would win the state by 84,000 ballots.
Should 90 percent of those voters go for Obama, a figure he achieved
among blacks in some primaries this year, he would still have enough to
win the state and its 15 electoral votes.
If Obama reached his goal of a 30 percent increase and brought all
those new black voters into his fold, he could also win in Arkansas,
Louisiana, Tennessee, Virginia and Florida. Wins in the six states
would give him 81 new electoral votes — enough to beat Arizona
Sen. John McCain even if the Republican won almost every other toss-up
state in the nation, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Missouri and
Ohio.
A 30 percent boost in black turnout also could pull Obama into a tie
with McCain in Mississippi. And in South Carolina, a conservative state
that went to President Bush by 17 percentage points four years ago,
Obama could come within 17,000 votes — less than a percentage
point. Ditto in North Carolina, a state often mentioned as a possible
Southern pickup for Obama.
Tom Schaller, a University of Maryland political science professor who
has long argued that Democrats don't need to win the South to win the
White House, said a 12 percent increase in black turnout across the
region would be enough to swing Virginia, Florida and perhaps another
state.
But he's not sold on Obama's guarantee.
"I'll believe a 30 percent increase in the black vote when I see it,"
Schaller said. "If Obama does it, he will have proved to doubters like
me that his organizing skills in Chicago coupled with his vision and
charisma are truly transformative. It'll be a thumping on Nov. 4."
Obama's advisers admit they have a distance to go.
In four Southern states that were able to provide figures by race
— North Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana — the
number of registered black voters has risen 12 percent since the
beginning of 2006. That's a remarkable run, and one that could be
further buoyed by an increased turnout among blacks already registered.
But white turnout has been up, too.
Also, there's no way Obama will win all black votes, even in this
history-making election as the first black candidate on a major-party
ballot. About 11 percent of black votes went to Bush in 2004, though
that figure is expected to decrease substantially in this year's race
between Obama and McCain.
And there is no guarantee that Obama will keep the support of all
Democrats who voted for John Kerry, Al Gore and President Clinton in
the previous three elections. An AP-Yahoo News election survey has
found that 8 percent of all whites say they would be very uncomfortable
voting for a black presidential candidate, and even 16 percent of
Democrats say they would have at least some reservations.
"It would be an important change in the dynamics of Southern politics
if Obama reached his goal of increasing black voter turnout by 30
percent," said Ferrel Guillory, who tracks Southern voting as director
of the Program on Public Life at the University of North Carolina at
Chapel Hill. "But he probably can't win simply with that. He's still
got to be attractive to white voters."
There are important other factors sure to affect whether this year's vote follows the trends of past elections.
McCain's history of bucking Republican orthodoxy could draw moderates
to the GOP. On the other hand, 25 percent of voters who call themselves
"very conservative" are either backing someone other than McCain or
remain undecided, the AP-Yahoo News election survey shows.
As for Obama's registration drive, in North Carolina's Durham County,
where 38 percent of residents are black, local Obama organizers boast a
volunteer roster of 4,700 people — equivalent to about 2 percent
of all people who live in the city of Durham. Faulkner Fox, a local
leader for Obama, said the group's members, both black and white, are
registering voters at a pace she hasn't seen in 20 years of organizing.
Still, experts wonder. David Bositis, who tracks black voting trends
for the Washington-based Joint Center on Political and Economic
Studies, says the primaries showed "there is something going on in
terms of black voters already. There's evidence they're charged up for
this election." But he also said he's more comfortable predicting a
turnout increase of 20 percent.
McCain's campaign so far seems comfortable with his chances to continue
the GOP's success in the South. The Arizona senator is setting up a
campaign organization in Virginia and is considering doing the same in
North Carolina. Other staffing decision are to be determined, advisers
said.
"I certainly don't fault Sen. Obama for trying to put some states in
play that haven't been in play in the past," said Mike DuHaime, who
advises both the Republican National Committee and the McCain campaign.
"It's probably a smart political move. I don't think it will pay off in
terms of electoral votes."
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