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Faithful
in Pews
Might not be Voters
in November
 (AP) - If Christian conservatives stay
on the sidelines during the fall campaign, presidential hopeful John
McCain probably stays in the Senate. Christian conservatives provided
much of the on-the-ground, door-to-door activity for President Bush's
2004 re-election in Ohio and in other swing states. Without them, the
less organized and lower-profile McCain campaign is likely to struggle
to replicate Bush's success.
And so far, there's been scant sign that the Republican nominee-in-waiting is making inroads among these fervent believers.
"I don't know that McCain's campaign realizes they cannot win without
evangelicals," said David Domke, a professor of communication at the
University of Washington who studies religion and politics. "What you
see with McCain is just a real struggle to find his footing with
evangelicals."
Family groups in Ohio outlined their doubts about the Arizona senator
in a meeting with McCain's advisers last weekend. They're concerned
about his record on abortion rights and on campaign finance laws that
they believe limited their ability to criticize candidates who are
pro-choice on abortion.
"There's certainly a little reservation about Mr. McCain. I think the
VP choice is going to be important," said Chris Long, president of the
Ohio Christian Alliance. "If they choose a conservative for the VP,
that will help his campaign. It would go a long way of sending a
positive message to evangelicals."
McCain was in Ohio Thursday for a public town hall meeting with
undecided voters, and for a private fundraiser. While in the Cincinnati
area, he also met behind closed doors with conservative activists, some
of whom also attended the private session last weekend.
Marlys Popma, McCain's director of evangelical outreach, was one of two
aides who met with the forum last weekend and reminded them of McCain's
record supporting school choice while opposing abortion rights and
Internet pornography. She said the campaign understands the interest in
the vice presidential nominee, but she noted that McCain "is the one
who is going to be nominating judges. He's going to be the one who is
signing or not signing bills."
"John McCain is their guy," Popma said. "John McCain's record is what
will bring individuals to him. I think there are some people out there
who do not know John McCain's record."
McCain's senior aides try to downplay the fissure with this part of the
GOP's base. They say their internal polling data suggests McCain has
the support of three-quarters of white evangelicals in swing states,
slightly less than Bush finished with. They also stress that McCain is
against abortion rights, even if it's not the centerpiece of his
campaign.
McCain, who identifies himself as Episcopalian and attended Baptist
services last weekend, has done himself no favors. He appeared ignorant
of high-profile figures, especially as he sought — and then was
forced to reject — the support from Ohio's Rod Parsley and Texas'
John Hagee after their controversial sermons brought the candidate
unwanted criticism.
"That was one of the most ill-advised faith and values adventures this
campaign," said Jacques Berlinerblau, a religious scholar at Georgetown
University who studies faith and the U.S. presidential campaign.
It gave religious conservatives yet another reason not to like McCain,
even though he has sought a truce this time after calling
televangelists Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell "agents of intolerance"
during his first presidential run.
"It's hard to believe he's really changed, from his absolute disregard
and disdain for the traditional guard of the religious right," Domke
said.
Republican Ken Blackwell, Ohio's former secretary of state, was
chairman of Bush's campaign in the state and built a strong ground game
from Christian conservatives. He said he appreciates McCain's bluntness
but doesn't think it's helping him with the base.
"He has never identified with the evangelical and Christian movement
and therefore he can, at times, misread or misinterpret certain
activities in the political field of play or certain comments that are
offered," said Blackwell, now at the Family Research Council, a
conservative think tank. "I personally would like for John to get to
the point of comfort with some of our issues and policy positions,
through understanding and genuine acceptance."
High-emotion ballot initiatives banning gay marriage in 11 states
helped drive conservatives to the polls in 2004. Ohio's ban helped give
Bush a win by energizing the party's base in a state that every
successful Republican presidential candidate has won. But only two
states proposed such bans this year: Florida, a swing state, and
California, which has been an easy win for Democrats in recent years.
One of the more influential figures among Christian conservatives,
James Dobson, told listeners to his popular Focus on the Family radio
program this week that Obama's religious views are problematic. Yet
Dobson continued to vent about McCain, who has not been a vocal
supporter of Arizona's state ban on gay marriage.
"This is a year when we have a lot of frustration with both political parties," Dobson said Tuesday.
Domke's research suggests Obama could lose big among older
evangelicals, particularly elite faith-based activists, who take their
cues from Dobson.
Ohio Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, an ordained Methodist minister,
said Thursday fracturing among the conservative religious activists has
made it difficult for McCain to round them up.
"And that makes it increasingly difficult for a candidate like Sen.
McCain, who probably feels he needs their concentrated and converted
effort to win," Strickland told reporters on a conference call.
Bob Heckman, who leads McCain's outreach to conservatives, said voters
will see clear differences — and McCain's values better dovetail
with their views than do Obama's, he added.
"Part of our job is to remind them they're down to a binary choices," Heckman said.
But Dobson has not backed off his statement that he could not in good
conscience vote for McCain and has suggested he might not cast a
presidential ballot.
"A lot of evangelicals would rather take a defeat than to vote for a
candidate they don't trust," Domke said. "A Republican defeat,
particularly McCain's defeat, would help their movement."
Although the Arizona Republican's advisers privately worry about
rejection by the religious right, McCain's campaign lacks the
faith-based savvy of Bush's campaigns. McCain skipped the Southern
Baptist Convention Annual Meeting, a gathering that Bush addressed by
video in 2004. Unlike Bush, whose campaign also threw a private
reception at that meeting, McCain didn't even bother sending aides.
Meanwhile, Obama's campaign is aggressively reaching out to evangelicals.
The Illinois senator dispatched former 9/11 Commission member Tim
Roemer to meet with fellow Roman Catholics. He sent Brian McLaren, one
of the country's most influential pastors, to meet with fellow
evangelicals. And aides have conducted more than 200 "American Values
Forums," soon to be followed up with house parties and town hall-style
meetings aimed at young Catholics and young evangelicals.
Obama's strategy isn't aimed at outpolling McCain among evangelicals.
"Obama knows he can't win (among evangelicals)," said Berlinerblau, who
wrote "Thumpin' It: The Use and Abuse of the Bible in Today's
Presidential Politics."
"If he can get up for 21 to 30 percent, he's gold," Berlinerblau said.
"And that's exactly what he's doing. He's going to fissure off this
progressive evangelical voter."
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