The devastating earthquake that hit Haiti last month may have caused billions of dollars more in damage than initially estimated, according to a study released Tuesday by the Inter-American Development Bank.
The study, based on a statistical analysis of data from 2,000 natural disasters over 40 years, estimates that the cost could be $7.2 billion to $13.2 billion, based on a death toll of 200,000 to 250,000; earlier estimates had hovered around $5 billion.
The authors -- Eduardo A. Cavallo, Andrew Powell and Oscar Becerra -- said their early snapshot was "useful to put this event into perspective and to inform the international community of the enormity of the challenge that lies ahead in the task of reconstructing Haiti."
But they underlined their caution about the exact figures, writing: "We cannot know if the experience with past episodes around the world will be relevant for Haiti. Every event is different, and although we control for country and regional specific characteristics in the regression, we could have missed something."
A more comprehensive estimate of damages is under way by experts at the Inter-American bank, the World Bank and the United Nations Development Fund. But it is already clear, the development bank's economists said, that the "sum will be beyond the scope of one agency or one bilateral donor" and require significant international cooperation to manage.
Source: New York Times | MARC LACEY
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