Zimbabwe's Morgan Tsvangirai
has gambled his political career by pulling out of an election run-off
and he must now count on regional action as well as sympathy to have a
hope of unseating President Robert Mugabe. In a free election, the
opposition leader would have been well placed to win next Friday's vote
after beating Mugabe in the first round, but he announced on Sunday
that political violence made a fair ballot impossible.
The
announcement was hedged though -- with a plea to Africa and the world
to intervene in the crisis. He also spoke of the need to work on a
transition of power away from Mugabe, who has ruled since 1980,
suggesting a readiness for negotiations.
"It is a bold statement, but he does appear to be leaving his options
open. This sounds like a provisional pull-out," said Brian Raftopolous,
a political analyst with the Zimbabwe Institute.
Tsvangirai, a fiery 56-year-old former trade unionist, always knew the
run-off would be difficult and only reluctantly agreed to take part.
His Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) said he won the outright
majority needed on March 29 to avoid a second round of voting, but
agreed to go along to avoid granting automatic victory to Mugabe, 84.
At first sight, giving up now would have the same result.
But the picture has changed.
African countries have joined Mugabe's Western critics in voicing anger
at poll violence -- the opposition says 86 supporters have been killed.
Not long ago, regional states sat silent and gave tacit backing to
Mugabe, seen by many as a hero of the struggle for independence.
The government blames Tsvangirai's followers for the violence but the
region has certainly not taken up that line.
IMPATIENCE
In fact, southern African states show growing impatience with Mugabe
and fear total meltdown in Zimbabwe.
The crisis has driven millions of Zimbabweans into their countries,
straining economies and creating tensions even in powerhouse South
Africa -- where xenophobic violence exploded last month.
Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, also chairman of the Southern African
Development Community (SADC), showed understanding for Tsvangirai after
the withdrawal.
"Elections held in such an environment will not only be undemocratic
but will also bring embarrassment to the SADC region and the entire
continent of Africa," he said.
But Tsvangirai will need action as well as words from regional leaders
if his gamble is not to backfire. The United States and former colonial
power Britain have little leverage.
"There is not a huge amount (regional leaders) can do. What Mugabe has
stressed since the year dot is sovereignty. Part of that is directed
against Western colonial interests, but it can be as effectively
directed against regional leaders," said Tom Cargill of Britain's
Chatham House thinktank.
SOUTH AFRICA KEY
Most important of will be the role of South Africa.
President Thabo Mbeki has never shown much fondness for Tsvangirai,
while the Zimbabwean opposition leader has openly criticised Mbeki's
role as mediator in the crisis.
But the MDC leader has a better relationship with the increasingly
influential Jacob Zuma, head of South Africa's ruling African National
Congress, who shares his humble roots. Tsvangirai is the self-taught
son of a bricklayer who worked his way up through the union movement.
By withdrawing, Tsvangirai could also be moving towards a plan Mbeki
has been said to favour by South Africa's press -- calling off the
election to allow a national unity government.
Mbeki was quick to say that South Africa would try to persuade Mugabe
and Tsvangirai to meet to discuss the crisis.
"...that most certainly is what we would try to encourage," Mbeki said
after Tsvangirai's announcement.
Until now, prospects for such talks appeared limited. Neither side
trusted the other to head an interim administration. Both believed they
could win the vote -- by whatever means.
Now regional pressure could make a difference in getting Mugabe to the
table. He is undoubtedly in a weaker position than before the March 29
elections, when his party also lost its parliamentary majority. Without
a contested run-off, even a flawed one, his legitimacy could be more
uncertain.
"With the MDC withdrawing, I think it is back to negotiations," said
Susan Booysen, a political analyst at the University of the
Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.
Such negotiations could test Tsvangirai to the full. His party has
suffered deep internal divisions in the past -- some over questions of
his judgment and style -- although differences have been patched up for
now.
Tsvangirai has made his name as the only person who has come close to
ending Mugabe's rule.
But the ruling ZANU-PF party and the generals fighting behind Mugabe
are known for their political nous as well as a readiness to use
whatever means necessary to avoid losing their 28-year grip on power.
"For Tsvangirai himself, time is running out," Knox Chitiyo of London's
Royal United Services Institute said earlier this month. "Everyone
talks about this being ZANU-PF's end game but I think it's also the
MDC's end game."
Zimbabwe's Morgan Tsvangirai
has gambled his political career by pulling out of an election run-off
and he must now count on regional action as well as sympathy to have a
hope of unseating President Robert Mugabe. In a free election, the
opposition leader would have been well placed to win next Friday's vote
after beating Mugabe in the first round, but he announced on Sunday
that political violence made a fair ballot impossible. 
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